Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
